GP Academy Letter 250811: The Coming Market Crash And a White Swan

In last evening’s weekly class presentation I shared a chart of the U.S. stock market that reveals rising price action bordering on the hyperbolic.

Aggressive trajectories like these are both abnormal and tricky. They tend to last longer and go higher than expected. And when they finally reverse, they do so suddenly and precipitously.

We’ve seen several crashes over the past quarter-century, including the “Tech Wreck” of 2000 that took the Nasdaq down 78%, and the “Great Recession” of 2008 that took the DOW down 54%.

When the next crash arrives, trillions of dollars in 401ks and IRAs will be wiped out once again—at a time when the middle class is in the worst shape it’s ever been.

In the video interview below, Ed Dowd, former manager of a $14 billion dollar fund at BlackRock, predicts a stock market crash of 40%-50% led in large part by a recession due to an unavoidable collapse in the residential housing market.

Black Swan events are those you don’t see coming. Dowd refers to the coming financial crisis as a White Swan because it’s “predictable, visible, and already in motion.” He adds that it’s “the biggest asymmetric trade I’ve ever seen in my life.”

KEY POINT: Last evening, using basic chart candlesticks and technical analysis, I demonstrated to students how to know when the stock market is about to head down, and how to protect your 401k and IRA when it does.

I know of nowhere else where this information is being taught online to the general public, and certainly not for $15 a month. If you have loved ones in your life whose financial well being you care about, invite them to enroll. Our enrollment page is HERE.

STUDENTS TAKE NOTE: Last evening’s presentation is now online at our website at Students > Video Playbacks.